2026 NFL mock draft: Top 10 pick predictions off free agency

Money is flying around the NFL, as teams begin agreeing to free agency deals, re-signings and big-name trades. And in turn, those moves — and in some cases, non-moves — have impacted how the 2026 NFL draft might unfold. For example, the Chiefs signing running back Kenneth Walker III means they probably won’t target Jeremiyah Love at No. 9 overall.

So let’s sort through the shifting team needs, prospect targets and potential strategies of franchises slated to pick in the top 10 of April’s first round, basing our predictions off all the action we’ve seen so far. Keep in mind that plenty of free agent signings still lie ahead as the new league year starts Wednesday. Look at this as snap reactions to the free agency frenzy as we start to get a clearer picture of what might happen on April 23 in Pittsburgh.

Here’s a crack at how signings, trades, cuts and departures might have an impact on each team picking in Nos. 1 through 10 — and the prospect who makes the most sense to fill roster holes. I also answered a few big questions for teams picking outside the top 10 that have seen their draft needs shift after Monday’s moves.

Jump to a team in the top 10:
ARI | CIN | CLE | KC | LV
NO | NYG | NYJ | TEN | WSH
Questions on the rest of Round 1

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

There is one pick that won’t change this week, this month, next month … you get the point. Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick and provides the Raiders a beacon of hope to build their franchise around going forward. He’s an accurate, strong-armed, big-bodied quarterback who met the mark at every challenge of Indiana’s national championship run. The Raiders fortified the center position in front of their soon-to-be rookie QB with a three-year, $81 million deal for Tyler Linderbaum.

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

The Jets have maximized their cap space so far, trading for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and signing underrated pass rusher Joseph Ossai to a three-year deal. They also reached deals with Kingsley Enagbare and 37-year-old linebacker Demario Davis.

But the work is far from done to fix a weak pass rush, which still needs young talent. No FBS player had more sacks in 2025 than Bailey (14.5), who was a dominant force during his lone season at Texas Tech. He forced a total of eight fumbles over the past two seasons and is one of the most violent disruptors in the class.

Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

The Cardinals could certainly address the offensive line at this pick, as right tackle is a primary need with Jonah Williams and Kelvin Beachum still out there as free agents. However, when picking this high, it’s a reminder that the best way to rebuild a roster and sustain success is by being disciplined in drafting for value. Reese, who has as much upside as any defensive player in this class, would give Arizona a building block in its front seven.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Much of this offseason for Tennessee will be dedicated to improving the supporting cast around second-year quarterback Cam Ward. Signing slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson was a good start, but adding Tate would further that commitment. He is a sure-handed, nuanced and detailed route runner who averaged over 17 yards per reception during his final collegiate season. Tate is among the most pro-ready prospects and would carve out a significant role in Tennessee from the jump.

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

A busy start to free agency for the Giants included inking former Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to a three-year deal. This pick for me ultimately came down to Downs and his college teammate Sonny Styles, but adding Edmunds reduced the need for a linebacker at this spot. Downs’ three-year run in college, handling all sorts of responsibilities and communication, reinforces why his upside could be so significant for New York’s defense.

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

The Browns traded for Tytus Howard, which might serve as a deterrent to drafting Mauigoa. Howard’s best position is right tackle, where Mauigoa played throughout his career at Miami.

With that said, the Browns have won eight games over the past two seasons and clearly know their offensive line needs work — as evidenced by the three-year, $49.5 million deal for guard Zion Johnson. I’d still advocate for adding Mauigoa, who is one of the steadiest players in the class, and figuring out the offensive line construction later.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

The Commanders landed one of the best free agent pass rushers in Odafe Oweh, which checks the box for their most pressing need and enables general manager Adam Peters to take my No. 2 prospect in this class. We can debate the merits of taking a running back early in perpetuity, but Love is a dynamic, dual-threat player who would instantly supercharge what was a middle-of-road backfield last season. Teaming Love up with Jayden Daniels could be a lot of fun.

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Miller: ‘Jeremiyah Love is the best football player in this class’

Matt Miller and Ben Solak discuss what makes Jeremiyah Love the best football player in the 2026 NFL draft class.

Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Longtime stalwart Demario Davis reunited with the Jets in free agency, and his reliability and durability will be missed in New Orleans. He started at least 16 games in all of his eight seasons with the Saints, who can now turn to one of the most unique players in the class in Styles. The safety-turned-linebacker had the entire football world buzzing with his combine performance, but he’s much more than just a workout star. Styles has excellent range, a quick-trigger in the running game and strong coverage instincts.

Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

The Chiefs secondary will be reshaped in 2026, as the team’s top two cornerbacks (Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson) are now with the Rams. Delane had an excellent 2025 season at LSU, showcasing strong technique in man coverage and timing on pass breakup opportunities. He finished with two interceptions and 11 passes defensed.

Delane did not run a 40-yard dash at the combine, which didn’t help ease some questions in the scouting community about his straight-line speed. But he makes up for any potential lack of speed with fundamentally sound coverage play.

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

The Bengals spent in free agency at two essential spots, agreeing to three-year deals with both edge rusher Boye Mafe and safety Bryan Cook. But that shouldn’t be enough to satisfy the team’s pass-rush needs, which was a massive issue in 2025 (tied for last in pass rush win rate). Plus, Joseph Ossai has already departed for the Jets, and Trey Hendrickson won’t be back in 2026.

Bain is a tenacious and powerful player who overcomes his lack of length with brute force at the point of attack. He had 9.5 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss and 71 pressures in 2025.

Big questions for picks Nos. 11-32

Which Round 1 pick outside of the top 10 is most interesting right now?

The most recent one that was exchanged, as the Raiders now own No. 14 after trading edge rusher Maxx Crosby to the Ravens. Does Las Vegas work to try and replace some of Crosby’s impact with a pass rusher or further fortify the offense around Mendoza? Logical offensive targets would include: Utah offensive lineman Spencer Fano, Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, USC wide receiver Makai Lemon and Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling.

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Orlovsky: Linderbaum signing best thing Raiders could do for Mendoza

Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.

Given what we’ve seen in free agency, which first-round pick beyond the top 10 are you most certain on?

The truthful answer: None. However, based on what we have seen so far, it’s difficult for me to envision the Lions passing on a left tackle if Freeling or Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor reach them at No. 17. I have Freeling graded higher and believe he has as much upside as any offensive tackle in the class, while Proctor has the power of a forklift. Taylor Decker, Detroit’s former left tackle, requested a release from the team ahead of his 11th season.

If you had to make a prediction right now, which team will draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson?

I’m joining my colleague Jordan Reid’s parade and forecasting the Cardinals to make a move for Simpson. With Kyler Murray set to be released, Arizona’s search for a new QB is officially on; they also potentially showed their cards by adding Gardner Minshew on a one-year deal as a depth/bridge option. Taking Simpson at No. 3 overall would be a massive reach to me, but Arizona could trade into the 20s somewhere and land him — akin to what the Giants did to get Jaxson Dart last year.