MLB 2026: Handing out preseason Real or Not verdicts to 8 stars

In its simplicity, baseball’s box score is perfect at measuring the basic building blocks of the game: scoring runs while trying to avoid making outs. The numbers not only evaluate a player’s performance but also offer illumination into the game. You don’t have to be a numbers person to enjoy baseball — but numbers can be used to tell season-defining stories, ones that help drive our passion for the game.

Thus, the start of a new MLB season begs the question: Who will reach new heights in 2026?

Nobody expected Cal Raleigh to hit 60 home runs in 2025. Nobody saw Tarik Skubal coming two years ago — at least, not at this level of dominance. When a relief pitcher named Garrett Crochet started on Opening Day for the White Sox in 2024, nobody envisioned him becoming one of the best starters in the game. Nick Kurtz went from first-round pick out of Wake Forest to superstar slugger in less than a year. These are the stories we love — and that we follow through all 162 games that make up a full MLB season.

What are some of the fantastical numbers that might drive the stories in 2026? Let’s dig in with a preseason edition of Real or Not.

We start, as one must in a discussion about reaching new heights, with the great Ohtani. His record 50/50 season in 2024 has an argument as the greatest single-season statistical achievement. To put it in perspective: Of the 53 other times a player hit at least 50 home runs, the second-highest stolen base total is just 24.

How can he top that? Now that Ohtani’s ready to pitch a full season again, how about winning 20 games to go with what would be a third straight 50-homer season. Now that would be the greatest season ever. Impossible? Don’t tell that to Ohtani — he’s determined to have a big year on the mound.

“He seems like he’s on a mission, pitching-wise,” Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “Whenever we’ve seen him on a mission, good things happen.” Catcher Will Smith agrees: “He can go out there and win a Cy Young this year. I have no doubt about that.”

There are some obvious roadblocks here. Ohtani is more likely to pitch once a week rather than every fifth or sixth day. With 26 weeks in the season, that’s 26 starts — and even that is assuming the Dodgers don’t give him additional time off at some point.

It has been done, however: Clayton Kershaw won 21 games in 2014 while making just 27 starts. Pedro Martinez won an incredible 22 games in 29 starts in 1999 (and one more in relief). So, if Ohtani has a lights-out season and the Dodgers give him run support, winning 20 might be possible even if he doesn’t make 30-plus starts.

Verdict: Not Real. The problem with the Kershaw and Martinez examples is that they averaged more innings pitched per game than Ohtani will average, which leads to more decisions. The Dodgers are still going to be careful with him and will want him ready for October, so 26 starts feel like the absolute max he’ll make. Cy Young? Perhaps. Twenty wins? Probably not.

Aaron Judge: 63 home runs … and a Triple Crown

More than any other all-time great hitter, Judge has made himself into a great hitter as opposed to launching straight into stardom. Yes, he has the size and strength, but it took him a long apprenticeship through college and the minors before he learned to translate that raw power into game power for the New York Yankees. He was 25 years old his rookie season — especially old for a player who would go on to achieve his stature as one of the best hitters ever. Judge turns 34 in April, so although you might expect his decline to begin, he’s such a student of the game and knows his swing and process so well that he should remain the most dominant hitter in baseball.

That puts another monster season in play. With a fifth 50-homer season, he would surpass Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only hitter with five such seasons. With 63 home runs, Judge would break his own American League record of 62 set in 2022. He won his first batting title in 2025, hitting .331. He led the AL in home runs and RBIs in 2022 and 2024, so a Triple Crown is also in play. There are players who will battle him in all three categories: Raleigh won the home run and RBI titles last year, Bobby Witt Jr. won the batting crown in 2024 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looks ready for a huge season. It’s tough to pull off.

Verdict: Not Real. I’d put the odds of Judge winning the Triple Crown higher than Ohtani winning 20 games, but there’s a reason Miguel Cabrera is the only hitter to have pulled it off since 1967. And 63 home runs? That’s 10 more than Judge hit last year, when he got off to that ridiculous start in April and May. Even if he doesn’t hit 63, I’ll take 50-plus home runs — and a fourth MVP Award.

Bobby Witt Jr.: 92 extra-base hits

Here’s a fun one: Alex Rodriguez holds the record for most extra-base hits by a shortstop, when he had 91 for the Seattle Mariners in 1996 (incredibly, his first full season in the majors). But Witt had 88 in 2024 — tied with Jimmy Rollins for second most by a shortstop — when he hit 45 doubles, 11 triples and 32 home runs. Witt fell off to 76 in 2025, as his batting average dropped from .332 to .295.

Expect him to improve against fastballs in 2026 — he hit .295 with 13 home runs against them in 2025 as opposed to .342 with 18 home runs in 2024 — but what we don’t know is how the new dimensions at the Kansas City Royals’ Kauffman Stadium will affect his extra-base productivity. The fences will be closer by 9 feet in the corners and 10 feet in the power alleys (center field will remain at 410 feet). That should lead to a few more home runs for Witt but might eliminate a few doubles and triples.

Verdict: Real. Witt had 32 home runs in 2024 before dropping to 23 in 2025, so we know there’s 30-homer power here — and maybe closer to 40 with the new ballpark dimensions. He’s entering his age-26 season, a common age for a player’s best season. Add 20 points or so back to his batting average, and reaching 92 extra-base hits is in play.

Paul Skenes: Sub-2.00 ERA … again

Season 1: 133 IP, 1.96 ERA
Season 2: 187⅔ IP, 1.97 ERA

Since the end of the dead ball era in 1920, only two pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings in three different seasons with an ERA under 2.00: Sandy Koufax did it in 1963, 1964 and 1966; Kershaw did it in 2013, 2014 and 2016. Note that neither of them did it three seasons in a row. Skenes can do that in 2026 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Granted, Koufax averaged 323 innings in his three seasons and Kershaw averaged 194 in his three, whereas Skenes is aiming for his first 200-inning season — but that also leaves less margin for error for Skenes to post a sub-2.00 ERA. In 1963, Koufax allowed five or more runs in five of his starts, including one in which he got just one out; in 1965, he allowed five-plus runs five times; and in 1966, it happened twice, in starts of just two and three innings. Skenes allowed five runs in a start just once in 2025 — and just 45 runs overall across 32 starts.

Skenes might be the perfect pitcher prototype: He’s tall (6-foot-6); he throws hard (his four-seam fastball averaged 98.2 mph in 2025) and throws strikes; he utilizes seven different pitches; he’s dedicated to his craft with an already legendary pregame routine; he’s consistent — in 11 months in the majors, his worst ERA has been 3.18; and he’s mature and focused.

Any nitpicks? His fastball spin rate is only average, so he doesn’t get the ride up in the strike zone — and thus doesn’t get quite as much swing-and-miss as you might expect given his velocity. Batters still hit just .205 against his four-seamer and .220 against his sinker. That’s about it. What’s scary is there’s room for improvement: He could lower his walk rate (he was 24th among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025) and pitch deeper into games. And he is still learning the art of pitching: He doesn’t turn 24 years old until the end of May.

Verdict: Real. Again, all it takes is a couple of blow-up starts, and a sub-2.00 ERA in this era becomes difficult. However, Skenes had 12 starts last season where he allowed no runs. That total should rise in 2026 — and I doubt there will be many, if any, five-run outings for this ace.

Two players who are not known for their speed had shocking stolen base totals in 2025: Soto swiped 38 bases in 42 attempts and tied for the National League lead, and the even-slower Josh Naylor stole 30 bases in 32 attempts. Soto also hit a career-high 43 home runs, so he just missed becoming the seventh player with a 40/40 season. He especially ran wild on the basepaths over the final two months of the season, his 23 steals proof that swiping bases is as much about aptitude and determination as pure footspeed.

Can he do it again? Well, Soto has his sights on an MVP Award — “It’s not going to be easy, but I’ve got to find a way to beat him,” he said last month, referencing four-time winner Ohtani — and a 40/40 season would provide a bold headline to help that happen. After a slow start in 2025 that saw him hitting .224 on May 28, the New York Mets slugger hit .285/.418/.596 over his final 105 games. If he does that for six months, we’ll have an MVP debate.

Verdict: Real. It might be easy to say teams will be more aware of Soto’s baserunning in 2026, but they were aware of what he was doing in August and September and still couldn’t stop him. I think he’ll have another big year on the bases.

Mason Miller: Sub-.100 batting average allowed

It’s going to happen one of these years: A reliever with at least 50 innings will keep his batting average allowed under .100. Kirby Yates came closest, allowing a .113 average in 2024. Aroldis Chapman held batters to a .132 average last season with Miller not far behind at .139. Batters were 28-for-202 off Miller; they would need to go 20-for-202 to get the average down to .099.

Is allowing eight fewer hits — assuming the same number of innings — possible? It doesn’t feel like that many, right? Then consider that in his two months with the San Diego Padres, batters went 7-for-73 off Miller (including 1-for-37 in September). That’s an average of .096. Over his final four months, Miller held batters to an average of .092. It seems possible! On the other hand, only two relievers have consistently held batters to an average under .150 year after year: Chapman (five times) and Craig Kimbrel (five times). Nobody else has done it more than twice.

Verdict: Not Real. Considering he’s this unhittable and his fastball averages 101 mph in short bursts out of the pen, it’s understandable why the Padres are keeping Miller as a closer rather than making him a starter, as rumored when they acquired him from the A’s at last year’s trade deadline. Frankly, he’s probably a little too wild to become a starter, or at least a dominant one, anyway.

As for a sub-.100 average? Given that Miller averaged 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he’s not allowing many balls in play, that’s for sure. I’m taking the over, since a sub-.100 average will require a mix of domination and luck on balls in play, but this will be one to monitor.

Nick Kurtz: Second-youngest player to hit 50 home runs in a season

As a 22-year-old rookie, Kurtz came up late in April with just 33 career games in the minors and went on to slug 36 home runs in 117 games over the course of the 2025 season. He was so good that comparisons to Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome don’t seem absurd, not that it’s fair to compare a young hitter to someone who hit 612 career home runs.

But 36 home runs in 117 games equates to a pace of 49 in 160 games — and Kurtz did that even though he hit just .197 against left-handers, a mark that should improve with added experience. He loved hitting in Sacramento, bashing 22 home runs in 59 games, which bodes well for another big season as his Athletics remain there in 2026.

Prince Fielder is the only 23-year-old with a 50-homer season, hitting 50 for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007. He was born in May, and Kurtz was born in March, making Fielder two months younger than Kurtz in their age-23 seasons.

Verdict: Not Real. Kurtz will hit 50 home runs — just not in 2026. He’s going to face a lot of left-handed relievers, and we need to see if those adjustments against lefties will happen this quickly. I’ll predict 45 home runs for the season.

Junior Caminero: Youngest player to hit 50 home runs in a season

Ah, Kurtz was just a tease to Caminero. The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman hit 45 home runs last year in his age-21 season, the second most ever at that age behind Eddie Mathews’ 47 for the Milwaukee Braves in 1953. The most by a 22-year-old: 48 by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021. With unreal bat speed, Caminero appears to have a bright future as one of the premier sluggers in the game.

He made some improvements last year from his half-season in 2024. His average launch angle climbed from 6.8 degrees to 10.7, so he learned to loft the ball more often (although he hit a lot of balls on the ground, so there is still room for growth here). His pull rate climbed from 32.3% to 44.4%, which is ideal for hitting home runs. His swing-and-miss rate dropped from 31.7% to 24.7%, so he made much more contact. All positive signs for a young power hitter.

Verdict: Not Real. My only hesitation here is that Caminero is still prone to chasing out of the strike zone. Out of 146 qualified hitters, he ranked 116th in chase rate. Will pitchers figure out how to exploit that more in 2026? Will he hit to the opposite field more this season, perhaps sacrificing some power for a higher average (and fewer pulled grounders, which led to an MLB-high 31 double plays grounded into last year)? With his bat speed, there are multiple directions his offensive game could go, but I’m betting on pure power.

Like Kurtz, I think Caminero eventually gets to 50 home runs, but that’s an aggressive prediction for 2026, especially considering the Rays are back in Tropicana Field after a season at George Steinbrenner Field, a minor league ballpark. The Trop has never been a great home run park — and Caminero hit .313 at Steinbrenner Field last season compared with .218 on the road.