After an exciting first weekend, the number of teams participating in the men’s basketball tournament has been narrowed to just 16 teams. Three of the top four seeds (Duke, Arizona and Michigan) remain in contention, while top-seeded Florida exited with a one-point win over No. 9 seed Iowa.
Ahead of the next set of games, our college betting analysts, researchers and editors reveal their favorite early bets since the Round of 16 was decided, including both picks in this upcoming round as well as some futures to further advance the tournament. As you’ll see, our experts will sometimes disagree — for good reasons. Hey, that’s why they play games.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are accurate at time of publication and are subject to change.
(5) St. John’s (+6.5) over (1) Duke
Mark Zeno (analyst): In just their third season under Rick Pitino, the Red Storm have advanced to the Round of 16, for the first time since 1999. Surprisingly, they got here because of their defense, which ranked in the top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the first time since their last Round of 16 appearance. The Johnnies could match Duke defensively and their athleticism could contain Duke’s Cameron Boozer. They held Kansas star Darren Peterson to shooting 5 of 15. I see a similar result here for Boozer.
The total for this game is 142.5. Duke has seen just 10 totals this low all season. They have only surpassed that mark twice — once due to scoring 100 points against Notre Dame. The correlation here is that if Duke is limited in scoring, that favors the Johnnies here as a three-possession underdog. I think this is a game that St. Louis can win. John’s directly, so it’s worth sprinkling a little on the moneyline as well.
(1) Duke (-6.5) over (5) St. John’s
Kevin Pulsipher (researcher): Were we supposed to admire St. John’s after the Red Storm finally got their first win as a top-30 KenPom team other than UConn (whom they only beat at home and lost to on the road)? The Jayhawks left the Johnnies open behind the arc all night, and outside of Bryce Hopkins, it was failure after failure.
Duke’s top-ranked defense is using more time and shooting over 90% of opponents, which doesn’t bode well for a St. John’s offense that scores 0.7 points/possession on late shot clock possessions (including an abysmal 20% on 3-point FGs). As the defensive leaders on the second-longest team in D1, Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba II are elite on-the-ball defenders who can eliminate Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor from the game plan without committing a mistake. If the game is close late, the likes of Boozer and Isaiah Evans are strong enough on the line to extend the lead and cover.
(3) Illinois (+2.5) over (2) Houston
Tyler Fulghum (analyst): In the face of a dynamic offense (Illinois) versus a tenacious defense (Houston), I’ll side with the offense. Brad Underwood’s team has more diverse ways of scoring. They have already beaten their first two opponents in the tournament by an average of 28.0 PPG.
Futures contracts
(1) Michigan Wolverines reach Final Four (-145)
Zeno: It’s not like the Wolverines needed a ton of help to get to the Final Four before the first ball even kicked, but they got it anyway. Michigan’s elite defensive play will be enough to address Alabama’s inconsistency and then they will get the Tennessee/Iowa winner. Both teams are poor matchups for a Wolverines offense that is more efficient than both.
(3) Illinois reaches the Final Four (+210)
spring: Houston is listed as close to getting even money to win the region, despite being favored over the Illini by just 2.5 in the round of 16. The Cougars went 1-6 in their seven toughest games of the season according to ESPN Analytics (29-0 in their 29 easiest games), which is sometimes a trend worth following when a team puts forth a consistent effort from game to game but is unable to access additional equipment.
Meanwhile, Illinois has gone 3-3 in its toughest six games and has the ability to compete with Houston, as well as similar star power at guard. An eighth-round matchup with a lesser Big Ten team shouldn’t be much of a problem either as the Illini have won at Nebraska and Iowa this season. Additionally, they have only had one regulation loss in the past 100 days (to Michigan).
