The 2026 NCAA men’s tournament continues with a loaded Sweet 16 in Houston and San Jose, Calif., on Thursday.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf give their predictions for Texas-Purdue, Iowa-Nebraska, Arkansas-Arizona, and Illinois-Houston, as well as break down the keys for each team to advance.
7:10 p.m., CBS
Borzello forecast: Bordeaux, 70-80
Medcalf forecast: Bordeaux, 85-72
How Texas can advance to the Elite Eight: Texas emerged as one of the best teams in March, winning three games in five days to move from the top four teams to the Sweet 16. Sean Miller made Matas Vukietaitis an offensive focal point, and the Lithuanian native responded by averaging 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his final two NCAA Tournament games. Over his past 12 games, Vokietaitis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Purdue has enough size to handle the 7-foot-1 big man, but the Boilermakers have also allowed opponents to shoot better than 56% inside the arc in Big Ten play.
The Longhorns also have to continue their defensive resurgence, which came out of nowhere after they ranked No. 159 in adjusted defensive efficiency in their final six games before the NCAA Tournament. They are allowing just 1.03 points per possession in three tournament games. The key will be whether that’s enough against Purdue, which ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Texans have to make sure they don’t let Braden Smith dictate the entire game.
0:50
Game preview of No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue
Check out some stats from the matchup between Texas and Purdue in the men’s NCAA tournament.
How Bordeaux can advance to the Elite Eight: The late-season return to form of Trey Kaufman-Renne and Fletcher Luer has taken Purdue to a different level — and that’s likely the biggest key for the Boilermakers. Kaufman-Renne scored 20 points in the Big Ten Tournament title game and 25 points in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against Queen’s, then had 19 points and nine rebounds in a second-round win over Miami. Loyer was perfect from 3-point range (4-for-4) against the Hurricanes and is now shooting 19-for-35 from beyond the arc in his last five games.
While the Texans’ defense has tightened up recently, they are still in the bottom half of the SEC, while Purdue enters with the 16th best offense in the country. Furthermore, the Boilermakers rank in the top 10 nationally in 3-point percentage, while the Longhorns rank third in 3-point defense. If C.J. Cox, who suffered a knee injury and is listed as questionable, can play and shoot alongside Leuer and Kaufman-Renne, Purdue should be able to light up the scoreboard. — Borzello
7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello forecast: Nebraska, 66-63
Medcalf forecast: Iowa, 65-60
How Iowa can advance to the Elite Eight: We have evidence that Iowa can beat Nebraska (and vice versa). When the Hawkeyes beat the Cornhuskers on February 17, Bennett Sturtz was relatively ineffective but finished with 25 points for Iowa State to win. When the Hawkeyes lost to the Cornhuskers in the regular season finale, he finished with 11 points on 10 shots. In the NCAA Tournament, Stirtz received plenty of help from his supporting cast, as Alvaro Folgueras averaged 14.0 in two wins and Tavion Banks scored 20 against Florida.
Defensively, Hokies must avoid mistakes. They ranked last in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate, and there was a noticeable gap in free throw attempts in the two games against Nebraska. When Iowa State won, it was plus-6 at the free throw line. When Nebraska won, Iowa was -10.
0:49
Preview of No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Check out some stats from the Sweet 16 matchup between Nebraska and Iowa in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Nebraska can advance to the Elite Eight: Nebraska earned its first NCAA Tournament win in program history last Thursday, then doubled its win total in drama-filled fashion on Saturday when Vanderbilt finished at half court. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to win third place — against a team they split a regular-season series with during Big Ten play? Their success throughout the year depends primarily on two factors: three-point shooting and defense.
They rank in the top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points made on 3-pointers. They have four players who have made 50 or more 3s this season, and will likely have to make double 3s to win. When they beat Iowa on February 17, they made 10 3s. When they lost, they were 5 for 24. Nebraska led the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to less than 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions. The Cornhuskers had much more success against Iowa when they forced Stirtz into a tough outing. — Borzello
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello forecast: Arizona, 89-82
Medcalf forecast: Arizona, 93-87
How Arkansas can advance to the Elite Eight: With his team battling High Point late in the second round, Darius Acuff Jr. never looked back. The projected NBA lottery pick finished with 36 points on an efficient 11-for-22 shooting from the field to send Arkansas to its fifth Sweet 16 in six years. The Razorbacks can advance if he can get downhill, draw fouls and make room for his teammates. We saw this scheme in their win over the Panthers on Saturday. With Acuff attracting multiple defenders, his teammates were able to produce: Malik Ewen (14 points, 12 rebounds) and Billy Richmond III (15 points, 10 rebounds) finished in double-doubles, while Malik Thomas (19 points) also finished in double figures.
Acuff has to convince Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd that the Wildcats have no chance against Arkansas if they put one defender on him. However, on defense, Arkansas faces the deepest team in the NCAA Tournament field. Every Razorbacks player must win one-on-one matchups; Richmond and Trevon Brazile in particular will have to match the Wildcats’ elite athleticism in the frontcourt without getting excessively foul.
0:59
Game preview of No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona
Check out some stats on Arkansas’ Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
How Arizona can advance to the Elite Eight: Arizona can come up with a physically grueling style that challenges opponents all season long. Utah State cut Arizona’s lead to four points with five minutes left in Sunday’s second-round game — the Wildcats led by as many as 18 points — and made a serious attempt at a comeback in the final minutes. But Jayden Bradley drove to the rim and scored, Brayden Burris hit big shots, and Arizona got to the free throw line on 22 attempts in the second half. This is the approach to taxation that makes most opponents cringe.
Arizona is relentless. However, to beat Arkansas, its goal must be to stop the best player of college basketball’s postseason: Acuff. If Lloyd can create a defensive game plan against Acuff without sending too much help, his guards can avoid early foul trouble, which could have an impact on the game. But that is easier said than done. Acuff can make anyone panic, especially at crucial moments. Arizona can’t do that if it expects to win. — Myron Medcalf
10:05 p.m., on TBS/truTV
Borzello forecast: Houston, 74-72
Medcalf forecast: Illinois, 77-74
How Illinois can advance to the Elite Eight: When Illinois jumped out to a 14-5 start against VCU in the second round, it looked as if the Illini would enter halftime with a huge advantage — and then the Rams slowed the game down and turned up their defensive pressure to enter the break with just seven points. Ten minutes after the start of the second half, the team trailed by 22 points. That’s how quickly the game can turn against Illinois, which has the best offense in America. That’s the Illini’s advantage against a Houston team prone to extensive scoring droughts.
They have already beaten Tennessee and Nebraska, both top-15 defenses nationally. Houston and its pressure are unique, and the Illini will make tough plays offensively against the Cougars – but Illinois has proven it never stays cold. When Houston’s shots stop, as has happened several times this season, Illinois will advance if its impeccable offense can extend the lead. Houston is not built to come back, while Illinois is equipped to expand the gap against its opponents. Whenever the Cougars get an opportunity, the Illini have to seize it.
0:58
Game preview of No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston
Check out some stats from the matchup between Illinois and Houston in the men’s NCAA tournament.
How Houston can advance to the Elite Eight: Their defensive strength is their advantage when they force opponents to play methodically and thoughtfully. Texas A&M entered the second-round game against Houston having played one of the fastest paces in America, but the Cougars shut down the Aggies in a 65-possession affair and scored a subpar 87 points per 100 possessions. Houston will have to use the same approach against Illinois.
Kelvin Sampson will need effective efforts from star goalkeepers Kingston Flemings and Emmanuel Sharpe. And Joseph Togler, last season’s Big 12 defensive back, spent the latter part of his campaign as an emerging offensive threat. But to beat the best offense in the country, Houston will have to use the same gritty style that has fueled its 7-1 streak in its past eight games. One of the best defensive units in America will have to get the better of Illinois, which can turn a string of shots into a firehose. Houston’s defensive strengths should be the difference against Brad Underwood’s team. –Medcalf
