‘Do not draft’: Why PCA, Corey Seager could ruin your fantasy baseball season

Fantasy baseball managers loved Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong last season because he reached the exciting marks of 31 home runs and 35 stolen bases — one of only seven players to achieve 30/30 excellence. Then again, all those other players also drew at least 30 walks and, in most cases, at least twice that many. Crow-Armstrong, also an NL Gold Glove winner, did not. This aggressive nature and severe lack of plate discipline, while not defining his breakout season, might define his future.

Crow-Armstrong’s 4.5% walk rate, the fifth-worst mark among 145 qualifiers for the batting title, surely played some role as pitchers adjusted and began to retire him with more regularity. Crow-Armstrong hit .265/.302/.544 during the season’s first half, providing an outstanding 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases (in 31 attempts). He easily made the All-Star Game roster and was even considered to be an MVP candidate. But he hit just .216/.262/.372 after the break with only six home runs and eight steals (in 12 attempts). Only 12 players posted a lower OPS in that span. None were MVP contenders.

Though Crow-Armstrong remains popular in roto/categories leagues, he’s far less so in points formats (which are ESPN’s standard) where the walks and strikeouts are critical. Sure, he remains safely in the top 100, but at a significant discount. There is clear risk in investing any early draft pick or high amount of auction funds in his direction in either format, thus he is an obvious candidate to lead ESPN’s latest “Do not draft” list. Now, this doesn’t mean you should officially and eagerly ignore Crow-Armstrong this season, but committing a top-50 draft pick to him and assuming that he is a building-block mainstay (like the first half of 2025) is aggressive.

That’s what the “Do not draft” list is, really, as we analyze perceived preseason fantasy value versus the likely actuality of pending statistics reinforcing said value. For these purposes, we use average live draft position (ADP) as a guide in judging a player’s value, on ESPN and on other sites such as NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship). Even in roto/categories leagues, which is the focus of this column, there is performance risk with Crow-Armstrong as he continues to aggressively swing at nearly everything, with little assurance he adjusts his strategy. Perhaps he achieves 30/30 again, but there also is a statistical downside.

There are other fantasy relevant hitters with significantly low walk rates, including Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz and Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez. Those players are risks, too, though they should not cost a top-100 pick in ESPN leagues, whether roto or points based. Crow-Armstrong costs a top-50 pick. Be careful here. We often see second-half struggles as a more reflective barometer of future performance, as hitters aim to adjust. Crow-Armstrong is only 24, has an affable personality, is a wonderful defender and an exciting baserunner with power. Still, there is risk in fantasy baseball. Be careful out there.

Other players to pass on at their current ADP

Catcher: In ESPN leagues, we use only one active catcher, which is not typically the norm. (NFBC and many other expert leagues, for example, require you to start two catchers). In any event I seldom invest in any catcher early. Look, we are not featuring Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh on this list, but does anyone believe he is going to mash another 60 home runs? Catchers get hurt more than most position players and tend to wear down. I admit I have been fading Raleigh as a top-20 option, but he should not be featured here.

Selecting Diaz and Perez in the middle rounds are responsible investments, despite those low walk rates. … Baltimore Orioles star Adley Rutschman, however, hasn’t been a star since 2023. While his plate discipline remains solid, his batted-ball metrics continue to regress. Fade Rutschman in ESPN formats. … Twelve catchers outscored Philadelphia Phillies starter J.T. Realmuto in roto and points formats. Things aren’t likely to improve at age 35, so fade him in single-catcher formats.

First base: The top 10 at this position feel relatively safe. It’s worth highlighting that Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman is no longer a top-50 option in ADP. That is wise. Freeman made this list last season, and it was the correct call. But he might become underrated if he falls too far. … I would not necessarily avoid Josh Naylor of the Mariners in the top 100, but he isn’t likely to steal another 30 bases again, as he is among the slower runners in the sport. Naylor retains most of his value, but he has been an inconsistent slugger. I’ve faded Naylor at his current aggressive ADP.

There was perception that new Boston Red Sox starter Willson Contreras would perform better last season without being hampered by having to play catcher. It did not happen, though he played more. His ADP is fair and rather low, so let’s leave it that way. … New San Francisco Giants leadoff hitter Luis Arraez isn’t for everyone. I prefer that all my hitters in fantasy hit for power, rather than focus on contact and batting titles. Arraez rarely strikes out. He is far more valuable in points formats than roto. I avoid him everywhere.

Second base: Astros legend Jose Altuve turns 36 in June. He hurts the team defensively, which might affect his playing time. Plus, his OPS has fallen in each of the past three seasons. Altuve stole only 10 bases in 16 chances. The power and durability remain, but perhaps not for much longer, making him a risky top-100 choice. … Red Sox 2B/OF Ceddanne Rafaela, another bottom-10 walker at 4.8%, doesn’t offer the power/speed combo of Crow-Armstrong, but he goes roughly 100 spots later. Also, Rafaela’s .587 second-half OPS was second-worst in MLB. Do not expect a high batting average, ever. … Braves starter Ozzie Albies is no longer a top-100 pick, but he has largely disappointed in three out of four seasons. There remain better mid-draft choices.

Shortstop: It’s OK to covet Dodgers star Mookie Betts after the fifth round, but his fantasy value is hardly the same as it was even two seasons ago. Like Freeman, the market corrected some here, so don’t try to live in the past. … Everyone seems to expect a big drop in production for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Geraldo Perdomo. I tend to agree he is unlikely to hit for great power. His performance was volume-driven in 2025, but he should remain a top-100 option. … Texas Rangers star Corey Seager is an annual staple on this list, for good reason. He has appeared in 125 games in only one of the past five seasons. He’s a solid producer when he plays, but his lack of durability is a problem. … Speaking of repeated injuries, kudos to Red Sox star Trevor Story for playing in 157 games last season. Does anyone expect a repeat? This alone makes him a risky top-50 selection.

Third base: Cincinnati Reds cleanup hitter Eugenio Suarez hit 52 home runs in total during the 2023-24 seasons for the Mariners and Diamondbacks. Then he mashed 49 blasts last season. Suarez hits for low average and whiffs a lot. You won’t like it as much when he drops back down to the 30-HR range — and that won’t match his current ADP. … Braves starter Austin Riley has averaged 106 games over the past two seasons. We should assume he is no longer a durable player, until he proves us wrong. … I was a fan of Jordan Westburg until we learned of the UCL tear in his throwing elbow. When a player is already hurt in March, do not assume a breakout campaign is pending. Assume a number of missed games. … Minnesota Twins slugger Royce Lewis felt worth the risk two seasons ago. He hit for big power when he was healthy enough to hit. We cannot count on either durability or production now.

Outfield: This is a big season for Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz. Before him, nobody had ever hit below .230 with 20 home runs and 30 steals — and Cruz hit only .200. He boasts consecutive seasons with a 30% K rate and he hit a mere .102 off lefties. If that continues, Cruz will be platooned. Fade him as a top-100 pick, which is where he is going. … Michael Harris II walked 16 times in 160 games, or less than once per week. He’s in Javier Baez territory now (and don’t think about drafting Baez). Harris hit awfully in four out of six months last season. Pitchers generally know why. … New York Mets outfielder Luis Robert Jr. is a tantalizing talent who, over the past two seasons with the Chicago White Sox, hit only .224 while missing one-third of the games. The Mets can afford to take a chance on him, but I just can’t go there.

Speedy Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson might swipe at least 75 bases, if he plays enough. Still, while he hit .295 as a rookie, he offers no power or defensive competence. We must avoid him in points formats, and the Rays might follow suit, jeopardizing him in roto formats. … Washington Nationals starter Dylan Crews — the No. 2 pick in the 2023 amateur draft — will play and he will run, but the rest might hurt. Crews going in the middle rounds is probably OK, but he must prove he can hit MLB pitching. … New York Yankees youngster Jasson Dominguez might not even make the team. Avoid. … It is true that Dodgers starters Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages had two of the worst walk rates among qualifiers, but it didn’t hurt them in that deep lineup. I’m OK with their aggressiveness. … Los Angeles Angels Hall of Famer Mike Trout going in the middle rounds is OK. It just should have happened years ago.

Starting pitcher: Invest early in Dodgers ace RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Fade the other Dodgers. Hey, only one Dodger eclipsed 113 innings pitched last season. They have depth and take no chances with injuries, because only October matters. LHP Blake Snell might be awesome in his 60 innings again, but it is just 60 innings. Neither Snell nor Tyler Glasnow are reasonable top-100 options. … Reds RHP Hunter Greene can’t strike out 200 hitters with an injured elbow. This doesn’t look like the year to invest. … The hype machine is sky high for Mets rookie Nolan McLean. He shouldn’t struggle, but his top-100 ADP feels a bit inflated.

Reds RHP Chase Burns oozes 200-K potential, but he seems unlikely to approach enough innings to get there in 2026. His lofty ADP disagrees. … The hype machine is fairer for young Toronto Blue Jays RHP Trey Yesavage, postseason star, but still too aggressive for me. Avoid fellow Jay RHP Shane Bieber, too. When they’re hurting in March (not recovering players such as Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole), read the room. … Anyone past the top 200, eh, the risk is so low it might be fruitless to avoid.

Relief pitcher: Astros LHP Josh Hader nearly led this entire column. Shoulder woes cost him the end of 2025, and biceps inflammation has him well behind schedule now. Something is clearly amiss. We need more clarity, especially with a top-100 ADP. … I will note, in general, I have trouble investing a top-100 pick on any reliever, regardless of format, including shallow ESPN ones. There are too many top hitters and potential aces out there that early.

Mets RHP Devin Williams suffered through a few rough stretches last season, but his 2.68 FIP tells us more than his unsightly 4.79 ERA. Still, he concerns me as a top-tier fantasy closer. I will pass on him at that ADP. … Perhaps similarly, I cannot assume former Mets and current Orioles RHP Ryan Helsley simply returns to pre-2025 glory. … The Milwaukee Brewers are certainly making it seem as if RHP Trevor Megill might share save chances with Abner Uribe. That’s enough for me to fade the one going as a near top-10 closer. … Can we simply assume Blue Jays RHP Jeff Hoffman doesn’t permit 15 home runs again? Louis Varland didn’t permit 15 home runs.