Early Men’s Final Four Preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois Predictions

The 2026 Men’s Final Four is set!

UConn will open the national semifinals on Saturday against Illinois after a successful comeback against Duke in the Elite Eight, followed by a battle between No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan in Indianapolis. Who do ESPN college basketball pundits think will advance to the championship game on April 6?

Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf explain how each team makes it to the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament — and their keys to advancing to the title game. Find their predictions below.

Preview the final four

8:49 PM ET, Saturday

What do you know about Arizona?

The first factor that helped Arizona reach the Final Four: The Wildcats’ brutality in the paint was unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered in the NCAA Tournament.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth in the country in points in the paint, averaging over 42. It also led the nation in free throw attempts with nearly 20 points per game at the line. Against another dominant paint team in Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona had perhaps the most efficient interior performance ever in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint points and 30 from the free throw line, the most points combined in an NCAA Tournament game in the last 20 years. Then, after Purdue nailed them in the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats played with increased urgency and imposed their will in the second half. The Wildcats finished with 40 paint points and 20 from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a combined 28 points in those areas.

It’s not just the scoring from Koa-Pete and Motigos Krevas or the offensive rebounding from Tobi Awaka; It’s also the relentless attack of Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burris and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd advises on points in the paint, and that is reflected in every part of his team’s offense. — Borzello

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Brayden Burries’ loud play punctuates Arizona’s Elite Eight win

Brayden Burries dives down the floor and passes the ball to Ivan Kharchenkov for a layup to help send the Wildcats to the Final Four.

Arizona vs. Michigan keys: This would be the ultimate in a power battle in the paint, but Arizona is more reliable — and better — at controlling the glass and finishing at the rim. That’s the key here. The Wildcats rank in the top five nationally in points in the paint per game and offensive rebounding percentage, and lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. Meanwhile, Michigan is among the top five in two-point defense, block rate and average distance on two-point attempts on defense. Wolverines also limit their pollution. Can Arizona continue to dominate the paint against a team that can match it from a size and athleticism standpoint?

It’s the same situation at the other end of the court. Michigan shoots better than 61% inside the arc and ranks in the top 20 in points in the paint and second chance points per game. Arizona will have to win the internal battle on both ends. — Borzello

What do you know about Michigan?

The first factor that helped Michigan reach the Final Four: The Wolverines can change gears quickly and reach a level that few teams can match. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably the most complete game any team has ever seen in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48-26 in the first half and held them to just 85 points per 100 possessions. With 10:52 left to play in the first half, Tennessee led 16-15 over Michigan. The Wolverines then launched a 33-10 run to end the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his hands. What can anyone do when Michigan plays like this?

The Wolverines are a great team, they have stars, they play great defense — and when it’s time to dig in and battle, there’s no better team. That’s why Michigan is going to Indianapolis. –Medcalf

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Yaxel Lendeborg gets nice and -1 falls for Michigan

Yaxel Lendeborg drives and gets a smooth backhand layup and -1 for a fall in Michigan’s game against Tennessee.

Michigan vs. Arizona keys: The Wolverines will have to force the Wildcats to take shots outside the paint and neutralize all routes to the rim. Arizona is a really difficult team to compete with when they can get downhill, penetrate, and attack teams down the lane. The Wildcats are among the top 10 nationally at drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line: that’s what wins them over, and they’re better at that tactic than any team in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan has to stretch Arizona’s defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. The Wildcats’ four NCAA Tournament opponents have struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what Michigan does on the perimeter, it will create more space for Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. To work in the corridor.

However, facing such a strong team in Arizona, Michigan may need Lendeborg to step up with a high-caliber performance comparable to the 27-point effort he had against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. –Medcalf

Arizona vs Michigan predictions

Borzello forecast: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf forecast: Michigan, 78-76

6:09 PM ET, Saturday

What do you know about Yukon?

The first factor that helped UConn reach the Final Four: Tarris Reed Jr. and the experience maintaining the kind of patience the Huskies need to handle a Duke team that had a 19-point lead at halftime got them here. Three players in the starting lineup have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for at least two years, a rarity in the current landscape. Illinois would be the only team in Indianapolis that could match that.

Hurley is as great at recruiting as he is at retaining employees. Freshman Braylon Mullins had an up-and-down season, seemingly not hitting his stride consistently, but he was a five-star recruit for a reason. When Hurley turned on Mullins, he hit the biggest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to put UConn back in the Final Four.

The Huskies also managed to score 100 points per 100 possessions in the second half after the Blue Devils scored 147 points per 100 possessions in the first half. UConn kept fighting and won. –Medcalf

UConn Keys vs. Illinois: Illinois was the best offensive team in the country, but it also played elite defense against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn will have to solve that. The Huskies have size that allows them to play in a restricted zone that stifles opponents. Houston and Iowa both hit less than 40% of their shots inside the arc against Illinois, so UConn’s game plan will have to start with Reid, who has scored at least 20 points in three of his past four games. The Huskies’ big man was dominant against Duke, and he’ll have to be great against Illinois in that position so the Fighting Illini can’t get comfortable in that area. The Huskies will also have to exploit pockets in Illinois’ defense. Reid’s production will be key to making that happen.

On defense, it all starts with guard Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have several guards they could throw at the 6-foot-5 NBA draft lottery pick. They can’t let him put up big numbers.

Protecting the rim against one of the bigger teams in Indianapolis will also be important. –Medcalf

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Keaton Wagler loses a defender and then makes a 3 for Illinois

Keaton Wagler loses a defender and then hits an open 3-pointer for Illinois.

What do you know about Illinois?

The first factor that helped Illinois reach the Final Four: The Illini offense is one of the most efficient in KenPom history, but it’s their defense that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 points and 0.83 points per possession in the Round of 32, Houston to 55 points and 0.94 points per possession in the Sweet 16 and Iowa to 59 points and 1.08 points per possession in the Elite Eight. They protected the rim and the paint at an incredibly high level, limiting all three aforementioned opponents to less than 48% inside the arc. (Iowa State had just seven shots on Saturday.)

It’s a big improvement from their defensive performance late in the regular season, when the Illini saw six of their last nine opponents score at least 1.17 points per possession, suffering five of their eight losses during that span. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, but their defense suddenly looks like a top-10 unit, an offseason development for coach Brad Underwood’s squad. — Borzello

Illinois Keys vs. UConn: The biggest key will be limiting Reid — or getting him into serious trouble. Reid has been one of the most dominant big men in this NCAA Tournament, and his ability to score from the rim in one-on-one coverage has saved the Huskies’ inconsistent shooting on the perimeter. But with Eric Riby not nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season, UConn takes a huge hit on both ends of the court when Reid is out.

Another key will be the three-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s once since Feb. 18, but they haven’t given up double-digit 3s over the same period. Illinois attempts 3-pointers at a higher rate than almost any team in the country, while UConn’s shot-makers — Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Mullins — have been inconsistent. The Illini can outrun the Huskies. — Borzello

UConn vs. Illinois predictions

Borzello forecast: Yukon, 74-72
Medcalf forecast: Yukon, 77-73