With four World Cup titles, tied for the second most in FIFA history, Italy has a pronounced pedigree in international soccer. Given their rich history in the sport, undeniable brand name and solid stable of young talent, the Azzurri’s status at 30-1 to win the 2026 World Cup — tied for 10th-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook — makes sense on the surface.
There’s just one problem: Italy hasn’t qualified for the World Cup yet.
Having failed to qualify directly for the third cycle in a row, the Italians will have to defeat Northern Ireland on Thursday, followed by either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 31 in order to gain entry into the main draw via the UEFA playoffs.
Italy is a -350 favorite on the three-way moneyline against Northern Ireland and is -175 to qualify overall. However, given that the Azzurri failed to qualify for the World Cup from this position in its last two attempts, it’s worth wondering how sportsbooks are justifying placing them in the same odds conversation as teams like Colombia (40-1), Belgium (30-1) and Norway (25-1), who played a large role in getting Italy into this position in the first place.
“They are a really funny one. Obviously, on paper, they’re still a very good team and definitely toward the top end of teams at the World Cup. They’ve got a fairly good manager in [Gennaro] Gattuso and they’ve got a good spine of the team,” Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike told ESPN. “Their recent World Cup history has been very checkered. They didn’t qualify for the last two, and then in 2010 and 2014, they didn’t make it through the group stages. So definitely their recent history has been quite troubled, I guess, after winning it in 2006.”
Nevertheless, Bickerdike insisted that Italy’s power rating is based on the combined quality of the current roster. BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee concurs, saying in an email, “They’re a top-15 team in the world, in my opinion, it’s fair given who’s on their team.”
Bickerdike explained Caesars’ model for building out its World Cup futures board, which is to start with its favorite, Spain, and put it up against everyone else in simulations. According to this method, Italy comes out as “three-quarters of a goal worse than Spain.” The model then runs simulations for the rest of the tournament, producing probabilities for each team to win the tournament, win their respective group and so on.
The bookmakers stresses that he doesn’t want to get too caught up in Italy’s global popularity and instead wants to focus on what the numbers say. With an event like the World Cup — especially the 2026 edition that will feature the most teams ever — money will be spread across a large number of squads, so the priority is to get the price right regardless of the intangibles.
It’s all to say that Italy’s status as a top-10 team in the World Cup by the odds is based on how bookmakers feel about their potential for the tournament, even factoring in their need to get into the main draw first.
The action from bettors also roughly aligns with where sportsbooks are ranking Italy. Caesars and DraftKings both report the Azzurri having garnered the 12th-most wagers to win the World Cup, while BetMGM ranks them ninth in bets and handle share. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello anticipates some elevated attention with Italy, assuming they make it to the tournament.
“Italy’s history and global reputation will resonate with bettors and bookmakers alike, especially for an event like the World Cup,” he said over email. “If they qualify, expect strong public backing, shorter odds.”
Bickerdike says some action could shorten the Italians, but he’s anticipating more interest in Spain (+450 at DraftKings), France (+550), Portugal (11-1) and, of course, the United States (65-1) on home soil.
