Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punch their tickets Thursday for the first half of the Elite Eight. Who could join them in the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Regional Finals?
ESPN reporters in Chicago and Washington, D.C. are tracking Friday’s Sweet 16 action in real-time.
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Always east.
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to the Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA Tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — influential. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he’s a dominant presence in the post. If Reed grabs offensive rebounds and gives them an abundance of second chances, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalize on second chances with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be important for Jeremy Fears Jr. and Co. to hit more 3s, stretch UConn’s defense and create more lanes to the basket. They need to give UConn a reason to guard the perimeter — if the Spartans allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and lose State rebounds.
Izzo has been in this position before — against good teams — and won. His experience against Dan Hurley is crucial.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: In order to beat Izzo, UConn will need to look like the top defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten Tournament, UCLA produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the Round of 32, the Bruins — who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored just 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That same attention will scare UConn. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense thrives. The Huskies can’t let that happen.
On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demaree Jr. scoring two points apiece. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt it, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA Tournament games — more freedom and opportunity to create opportunities and make plays off the dribble or off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a number of scoring options, and as long as most of them are effective, they can return to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will need to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That work started with Felix Okper, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers, and changed other shots, including a late drive by Thijs de Ryder that Okper blocked during Virginia’s comeback attempt. According to Synergy Sports data, opposing players shot just 30% around the rim in Sunday’s game against Okpara. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momsilovic and Joshua Jefferson to win. That defensive effort combined with standout performances from Ja’Coby Gillespie and Nate Ament will be the key to Tennessee’s trip to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: move the ball to find the best shots on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they were without Jefferson, who was ruled out of the game due to an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and just three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3-to-1 or better.
Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State could press that duo for the same mistakes Otega Oveh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. This is how the cyclone can proceed. — Medcalf
