MLB betting tips for Opening Day: Expect some offense in St. Louis

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Thursday’s top batter prop bets

Jordan Walker | OVER 0.5 H (-141)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.72 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to left at 16.1 mph in this matchup, the second-most favorable of the day for hitters.

Victor Caratini | OVER 0.5 RBI (+244)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.83 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to center at 13.8 mph in this matchup, the fourth-most favorable of the day for hitters.

Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets

Cade Cavalli | UNDER 2.5 ER (-139)
Projection: 78% chance of this bet hitting, with a $47.71 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from left at 21.9 mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces.

Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (-102)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.30 EV
One reason to bet this: The Philadelphia Phillies’ infield defense profiles as the third best out of all the teams in action today.

Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (+119)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.20 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections show expected starting catcher Yainer Diaz to be a weak pitch-framer.

Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 4.5 K (-139)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.79 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 93 degrees.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings (F5) Team Total OVER
The Rays have hit this over in 11 of their past 15 road games (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -154

Minnesota Twins: Game Total UNDER
This bet has hit in nine straight games involving the Twins (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -102

Los Angeles Angels Team Total UNDER
The Angels have hit the under in seven straight road contests (+7.30 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -140

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline
This bet has been successful in 16 out of the last 20 games for the Dodgers (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI). Current odds: -259