The hot seat levels of college football coaching are so early

The college football practice car turns at different speeds, often alternating between chaos and calm, depending on the year.

After a relatively quiet cycle in 2024-25, the most recent carousel has moved fast and furious, taking coaches from the expected (Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State, Billy Napier of Florida) to the surprising (James Franklin of Penn State, Brian Kelly of LSU) to the downright shocking (Sherron Moore of Michigan). The SEC and Big Ten made nine coaching changes, including at four programs — Michigan, LSU, Auburn and Florida — that have won national titles in the past 20 seasons. All four power conferences have seen multiple coaching changes.

The scope of the carousel and the programs involved makes it easy to forget that the number of training changes could have been much higher. Many coaches barely survive their jobs after disappointing seasons, for reasons ranging from huge buyouts to managerial turnover. They will enter the fall under undeniable pressure to succeed, and midseason changes will be possible, if not likely, once again.

The upcoming carousel may not be as intense as the last, but there is potential for another wild round, especially if certain jobs are open in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12. Although we tend to view the coaching hot seat through the lens of who might be fired, there are other reasons for the changes, including the NFL, which will continue to evaluate Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Oregon State’s Dan Lanning and other college coaches.

To help understand what might happen in the coaching ranks during and after the 2026 season, the levels are back.

Go to layer:
hottest | want to work
It will cost us Need progress
Retirement hour Set of 6

Hotter than hot

Norvell is at the top of this list for the second year in a row. After FSU opened the 2025 season with a blowout win over Alabama and a 3-0 start, the team lost its first four ACC games and went on to finish 5-7, missing a bowl for the second straight season after a 13-0 start and a conference title in 2023. The lucrative contract Norvell received after Alabama pursued him in early 2024 continues to work to his advantage, as does Florida State’s precarious financial situation. But it is clear that Norvell must do better, potentially winning eight or more times, to secure his position for 2027 and beyond. FSU faces a challenging first half of its schedule that includes SMU (home), Alabama (road), Virginia (home), Miami (road), and Louisville (road). A poor start could lead to a mid-season change.

The main difference between Fickell and some of the other coaches featured here is that his sporting director, Chris McIntosh, remains firmly on his side. McIntosh boldly hired Fickell from Cincinnati in late 2022, rather than promoting program legend Jim Leonard to the permanent role. Fickell’s performance correlates directly with McIntosh, who retained the coach despite a six-game slump in 2025 that saw back-to-back shutouts for the first time since 1977. Wisconsin has pledged more financial support to the roster and other areas and has shown some late improvement with home wins against Washington and Illinois. The Badgers open 2026 against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, but they have a mostly favorable schedule that doesn’t include Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State or Michigan. Fickell certainly has a chance, but he can’t afford a repeat of what happened the past two seasons.

Baylor couldn’t get through 2025 without major change, but it came into the athletic director position, where Mac Rhodes resigned after more than nine years in the role. Aranda, who is 22-28 since leading Baylor to a Big 12 championship in 2021, might not have kept his job had Rhodes remained in charge of the athletic department. He must now beat new AD Doug McNamee and re-establish the Bears as a Big 12 contender. Baylor’s defense has regressed the past two seasons, ranking 105th in points allowed (29.5) over that span. The team will try to extract consistency from the transfer of quarterback DJ Lagway and navigate a schedule that begins with Auburn at Atlanta.

Locksley’s ability to recruit and build a roster is undeniable. Maryland has produced five or more picks in two of the past three NFL drafts and signed the No. 2 overall recruit in the country in defensive end Zion Elee, from Baltimore. But Locksley has struggled to translate talent into wins, as Maryland posted identical records — 4-8 overall, 1-8 in Big Ten play — the past two seasons. Athletic director Jim Smith, who took over in May, is giving Locksley another year to get things right, with quarterback Malik Washington and others returning. But anything short of a bowl appearance should prompt a change, as Maryland has a fairly manageable schedule that doesn’t include Indiana or Oregon.

We want this to work

Beamer has undeniably improved South Carolina’s profile, posting top-25 AP teams in 2022 and 2024, and beating top-12 Clemson in both seasons. But memories are short in the SEC, and the Gamecocks slumped last season, finishing 4-8 with just one conference win. Beamer and the staff did a good job in the offseason, retaining quarterback LaNorris Sellers, defensive end Dylan Stewart and other key players, and adding Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator. The 48-year-old Beamer often talks about his connection to South Carolina and sees the job as more of a destination than other coaches. But a repeat of what happened in 2025, especially with Sellers back, will be tough to overcome. Athletic director Jeremiah Donati did not hire Beamer.

After losing coach Jeff Hafley to the Green Bay Packers in January 2024, Boston College appeared to pull off a late-in-the-cycle coup in O’Brien, who brought NFL and college head coaching experience and grew up not far from campus. O’Brien had seven wins in his first season, but the team stumbled badly last fall, losing 10 games for the first time since 2012 and winning just once in ACC play. Boston College isn’t in a position to rotate coaches every few years, but another season similar to 2025, when the Eagles were outscored 278-166 in ACC play, could spark conversations about change.

It will cost us

Riley’s four years did not result in a conference title or a College Football Playoff appearance, as USC remains one of the most notorious programs to never reach the playoff field. Riley asked for patience, and USC made major internal upgrades and signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class this year. Riley’s contract with the school — brokered by former athletic director Mike Boone, not current AD Gene Cohen — makes a potential split more difficult, even though USC receives Big Ten revenue. Another complicating factor is the 2026 schedule, with USC facing Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Penn State this season, while getting all but Indiana and Penn State. However, the Trojans could have a better team and still miss the CFP, which could lead to a decision on Riley.

Progress is required

The Libby’s team took a step forward from year one to year two, especially in non-league play, where the Bulldogs went 4-0 and surprised then-No. 12 Arizona State, the defending Big 12 champion. Mississippi State has struggled in SEC play by a score of 1-7, and despite losing two games in overtime and another by two points, it has been outscored 128-67 in its last three league games. Athletic director Zach Salmon hired Libby, who engineered some improvement on offense last fall. But at 1-15 in SEC games, Libby must produce some significant results this fall to secure a third season in Starkville.

Retirement hour

When Belichick suddenly took the UNC job at 72, he was not viewed as a long-term starter in Chapel Hill. He returns for a second year after a challenging debut in which he notched four wins and made more headlines about his personal life and the program’s internal challenges than any on-field success. If UNC replays what happened in 2025, Belichick could move on to something else. Even a successful second season won’t dismiss talk of retirement, as Belichick turns 74 in April. He is signed during the 2029 season.

Ferentz turned 70 on Aug. 1, and weeks later became the Big Ten’s all-time coaching leader. He led Iowa State to an impressive 9-4 season with all four losses (including to eventual national champion Indiana) by five points or less. Ferentz is healthy and energetic, and still enjoys training despite some major changes to the sport. His age and longevity at Iowa State, where he will begin his 28th season as head coach this fall, will keep him in that category until he retires. What does Ferentz have left to accomplish in Iowa City? The school’s first CFP appearance would be a fitting way to end a decorated career.

Sanders is entering his fourth season in Colorado and has already exceeded some initial expectations about how long he will spend in Boulder. He enjoys living and working there and has a huge influence on how Colorado runs its program. But Sanders’ recurring health issues, including bladder removal and reconstruction surgery last spring, could ultimately limit how long he coaches the Buffaloes, who went from nine wins in 2024 to nine losses last season. The question for Sanders, who turns 59 in August, seems to be not whether he will leave Colorado for another college job, but how long his health will last. He will have another opportunity this fall to raise the program again.

Set of 6

After Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure as coach ended in 2023, Middle Tennessee State notably hired Mason, who had coached in-state at Vanderbilt and brought significant Power 4 experience. But Mason was unable to elevate a program that made seven appearances under Stockstill between 2013 and 2022, as Middle Tennessee struggled on 3-9 straight seasons. Since leading Vanderbilt to a bowl game in 2018, Mason is just 9-35 as an FBS coach. He will need better results to secure a fourth season in Murfreesboro.

EMU was a mission the coaching industry was watching late last season, as the team endured its second straight losing season. Creighton accomplished what no one else could in Ypsilanti, guiding Eastern Michigan to six bowls in eight seasons from 2016-2023, including four straight. The team had only one bowl appearance before his arrival, in 1987. But the high performance also raises expectations, and after 12 seasons as EMU’s coach, Creighton will likely reach playing eligibility again to ensure the path is right.

Georgia State hired McGee very late in the 2023-24 cycle, which could give him more time to get things right. But the team regressed from year one to year two, finishing 1-11 overall, 0-8 in Sun Belt play and 0-11 against FBS opponents. The Panthers were outscored 454-237 last fall. McGee arrives with deep recruiting roots in the state and a former standout with the program from 2014 to 2015. A minimal progression might be enough to secure a fourth season, but he has to start winning in the Sun Belt, where he leads just 1-15.