Halfway through the season, not a whole lot has changed in the favorites conversation for the NBA Finals winner market.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are still the clear favorites for the 2025-26 title, showing +130 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Denver Nuggets are still the clear second favorites at +450, improvements from +200 and +650, respectively, before the season.
Denver was a popular pick among bettors in the preseason, racking up the most bets and money at several sportsbooks across the nation. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN recently that the Nuggets are at least a minor liability for the book, given how much betting volume they’ve taken since the beginning of the season. Their 16% handle share at the book is tied with the Thunder for most on the board, but the slightly longer odds dictate a bigger hazard.
Caesars Sportsbook NBA lead David Lieberman said that the shortening of the favorites’ odds has prevented them from accumulating too much handle.
“The lower-priced teams, they just don’t get bet as much throughout the season,” he told ESPN. “The liability doesn’t rack up quite as much over the course of the year. So, I would say that those two teams are now out of a big liability status for us now.”
The other team that began the season in the contenders’ conversation, according to the odds, was the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were tied with Denver at +650 preseason but drifted to as long as +3000 at some books amid a rocky start. Then, in early February, the Cavs acquired James Harden from the LA Clippers, won every game with him before the All-Star break, and are back into the third-favorite slot at +1200 on DraftKings’ odds board.
While Avello said that the book had to shorten Cleveland’s odds because of the “quality of a player that [Harden] is,” he and other bookmakers remain skeptical of how much he can help this version of the Cavaliers get over the playoff hump, given Harden’s checkered history with postseason basketball.
“I mean, he will help, but how drastically he’ll help [is the question],” Lieberman said. “But I think as far as bettors go, I don’t blame them for getting in on that when their price was a little bit higher. I do think on paper they are maybe one of the top choices in the East, and maybe they just needed a little bit of a shake-up.”
Public bettors have at least somewhat affirmed their belief in the Harden-led Cavs, as they have attracted the second-most Finals winner bets (11.9%) at BetMGM in February, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs (13.1%). Cleveland has also taken the most money (30.9%) to win the Eastern Conference at the sportsbook during the month.
One team the public is truly buying into, though, is the East-leading Detroit Pistons, who are fifth on DraftKings’ Finals winner odds board at +1500 and have taken the second-most wagers (19%) to win the conference at the book. BetMGM reports that the Pistons have garnered the most tickets (25.3%) to win the East in February, while theScore Bet says they’ve taken the most money to win the Finals (18.6%) over roughly the same time period.
“The Pistons have been popular all year and are without question a force in the East, but those top teams all continue to draw action,” Adrian Horton, the sportsbook’s senior director of North American sports trading, said over email.
The other top two teams in the East — the New York Knicks (+1300) and Boston Celtics (+1500) — continue to be the popular public picks they tend to be each season, given their big-market status. DraftKings reports New York leading the Eastern Conference champion market in bets in handle, as well as trailing only Oklahoma City and Denver for the most action for the Finals. Both the Knicks and Celtics rank in the top five for BetMGM’s February betting as well.
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As with the Finals market, there are few surprises at the top of the MVP odds board midway through the NBA season, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are still the hefty favorites at -210 and +300, respectively, according to DraftKings lines.
The one major complication for their candidacies, as has become the case in recent seasons, is the 65-game eligibility rule. Due to injuries they’ve sustained throughout the campaign, SGA has 10 games he can afford to miss and still be eligible, but Jokic has only one. The same goes for Luka Doncic (+2000), who can spare five games, and Victor Wembanyama (+3500), who can spare three games.
Lieberman said he was a bit surprised by the public support Jokic received once he returned to game action on Jan. 30 given how close he is to missing the minimum. The bookmaker envisions one of the two favorites being able to get across the line, but if both don’t, it gets more interesting.
Aside from the aforementioned Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Jaylen Brown (+5000) have gotten a reasonable amount of action at longer odds throughout the season. It will have the books rooting for the favorites to stay healthy down the stretch.
“Those guys we’re a little bit not in great shape on, but when you look at the two chalks, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, we are in good shape,” Avello said.
