Two bets and a pick of the remover for Saturday’s men’s championship matches

The 2026 men’s basketball tournament heads into the second round on Saturday with some giant matchups. What games should you bet on?

Throughout the tournament, I’ll be providing my best bets for each round as well as my picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator.

Note: Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook At the time of publication Friday and subject to change.

Best bets for Saturday

(3) Michigan State -4.5 (-112) vs. (6) Louisville
Match time: 2:45 pm Egypt time

The Spartans’ defense is key here. Offensively, I don’t expect Michigan State to replicate their 59% shooting from the field against North Dakota State. But the Spartans’ defense will be just as threatening. It should come as no surprise that Louisville shot 54% from the field and 52% from 3-point range, but that won’t be the case against the Spartans’ D, who ranks 13th in adjusted efficiency. Louisville has played against a team in the top 20 in defensive efficiency six times this season and has lost five times, the lone win coming over offensively inept Cincinnati. The Cardinals nearly erased their 23-point lead in the second half. I’ll be playing against a three-point Louisville team here and rooting for the Spartans.

(1) Duke overall is over 75.5 (-125) vs. (9) TCU
Match time: 5:15 pm Egypt time

Duke survived a huge scare from 16-seed Siena to advance. Duke also put up the fourth-lowest shooting percentage from the field this season and worst three-point shooting percentage (19%) against the Saints. This will normalize and regress to the mean versus TCU. The D-Horned Frogs aren’t great in terms of opposing shooting percentage, ranking 154th in effective defense to field goal percentage. The Blue Devils should also have fun inside as the most dominant rebounding team. TCU is moving quickly on offense, averaging just 16.7 seconds per possession, which is 75th in the nation. If the Horned Frogs score, it will force Duke to keep pushing the pace. After the disappointing performance in the Round of 64, I expect a focused effort from Duke on the offensive end.

Choose a remover on Saturday

Vanderbilt

The Commodores’ elite shooting and inner presence deserve support. The lower ranked team is clearly the favorite here. I’m also ready to play against Nebraska’s 3-point lead and the highest of its first-ever NCAA Tournament win.

How to Play the ESPN Eliminator Challenge

Best bets for Sunday

Note: Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook Post time is Saturday and subject to change.

(1) Arizona -11.5 (-110) vs. (9) Utah
Game time: 7:50 PM ET (truTV)

The Wildcats were impressive against Long Island, dominating both offensively and defensively. Utah State, on the other hand, needed to shoot 55% from the field — combined with Villanova scoring just three points over the final 6:04 of the game — to steal a come-from-behind win in its first game. What catches my attention here is that this line seems short. Arizona was offering the same 11.5 to BYU, a better team by KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, which is saying a lot. The Wildcats were also favored by 9.5 over Kansas, which is 21st in adjusted efficiency margin. Add to that the Aggies’ poor 3-point defense (214th in the nation), and Arizona should overwhelm them over the course of 40 minutes.

(7) Kentucky vs. (2) Iowa Over 145.5 (-110)
Game time: 2:45 PM ET (CBS)

Kentucky needed overtime to escape Santa Clara, and Iowa State easily beat Tennessee, but lost likely All-American forward Joshua Jefferson in the process. Even without Jefferson, I still like Iowa State’s offense here. The Hurricanes are excellent from 3-point range, making 38.9% from beyond the arc, and I don’t see Kentucky being able to slow them down. Santa Clara shot 41% from the field and still managed to score 73 points in regulation against the Wildcats.

Led by Otega Oweh, who is coming off a 35-point performance, Kentucky will use its speed and size to score. And while the Cyclones don’t generally play fast on offense, they average just 16.6 seconds per offensive possession, 68th in the country. Kentucky will do the rest on offense here. If these teams reach their seasonal average, they should exceed that number.

Choose a remover on Sunday

Iowa

The Hurricanes are a question mark as we move forward due to Jefferson’s injury status, so it’s best to use them now. If they delved deeper, the potential loss of Jefferson would loom larger. Additionally, I don’t see Iowa falling out of this category.

How to Play the ESPN Eliminator Challenge.