The UEFA Women’s Champions League quarterfinals get underway Saturday, as the last eight teams in the mix battle to get to the final in Oslo on May 23.
The stakes are high, but how will the four playoff winners fare against the automatic qualifiers?
It is an unprecedented battle between English heavyweights in European football, the first time these two have met in the Women’s Champions League and the first time they will face off over two legs.
Domestically dominant Chelsea have claimed the past six Women’s Super League (WSL) titles, but Arsenal have done the one thing the Blues have yet to do: win the Champions League, though they waited 18 years following their first triumph in 2006-07. It will be an explosive clash, especially with everything on the line for both sides as neither is likely to lift the WSL title this season, too far behind champions-elect Manchester City.
Key matchup: Mariona Caldentey vs. Lauren James
Lauren James has been in exceptional form for Chelsea after returning from an extended rehab following persistent injuries. The club played the waiting game, sacrificing results earlier in the season to have its best player fit and healthy for when it matters most. If Chelsea can get the ball to James, she will surely punish her former side with her cool, calm and clinical finishing.
To hold James back, Arsenal will trust that Mariona Caldentey can keep control of the midfield, set the pace and springboard attacks for her teammates. Although she is an excellent finisher too — and might prove the difference-maker on the score sheet — she will be deployed to help nullify James’ threat while also aiding Arsenal’s explosive attack that has caught Chelsea off guard already this season.
Key stat
This is the first tie between two teams from the same city in UEFA women’s club competition history.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Chelsea: Sonia Bompator’s side is facing an injury crisis with limited defenders available and Sam Kerr potentially missing due to participation in the Women’s Asian Cup. Chelsea bagged the first silverware of the season last weekend with victory over Manchester United in the Women’s League Cup, but their thin depth could prove their unraveling in this heavily congested period.
Arsenal: History shows that Renée Slegers’ side has the ability to pull off shocks in top European games like it did in last year’s final against Barcelona, but the need to perform over two legs could prove challenging. Despite improved form, Arsenal have a split focus: They have two games in hand in the WSL, in which they risk falling out of European competition for next season, as well as the latter stages of the FA Cup. Over single legs, you could better see them defending their title, but over two-legged ties, reaching the final in Oslo feels a step too far for Arsenal.
Prediction
Chelsea 3-2 Arsenal (over two legs, likely with ET) — Emily Keogh
When the Clásico comes around, the question is inevitably the same: Can Madrid finally turn the tide against a dominant Barça side? The answer looked to be yes last year when Madrid finally ended their long wait for a win against the Blaugrana, winning 3-1 at the Olympic Stadium last March. Since then, though, it’s been business as usual: three Barça wins, 10 goals scored and zero conceded. Going into this Champions League matchup between the teams, then, it is hard to see past another Barça victory. However, these two games might prove a bit different. Sandwiched in the middle is a Liga F meeting between the teams, meaning we get three Clásicos in a row. Madrid will have to find a way to make that overfamiliarity work in their favor.
Key matchup: Misa Rodríguez vs. Barça’s star-studded attack
The truth is it is not actually about Madrid goalkeeper Misa Rodríguez against Barça striker Ewa Pajor; it is about Misa against the whole Barça attack. If Madrid are to win this tie, she will have to be at her best. Her save count might even have to tally double figures. In 22 games between the two teams, Barça have scored 75 goals. The goals come from many different players, too; it’s not just Poland striker Pajor, who has 23 goals in all competitions this season. Alexia Putellas and Clàudia Pina are also a massive threat in the final third, but Caroline Graham Hansen, Salma Paralluelo and Kika Nazareth can’t be ignored, either.
Key stat
Barça have won 21 out of 22 meetings with Madrid, scoring 75 goals and conceding just 10.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Barcelona: Barça failed to strengthen last summer, even relinquishing some of their squad depth, but are still motoring along nicely under Pere Romeu, with several youngsters — such as Aïcha Cámara and Clara Serrajordi — stepping up. However, Arsenal showed the blueprint to stop them last season and, with Aitana Bonmatí out injured, they might lack some imagination in the final third against teams that defend them well.
Real Madrid: There is no evidence Madrid are ready to win this competition. They are yet to win a single trophy since their foundation. Although they have looked good at times, they often come up short against the best teams. Recent examples include crumbling against Arsenal in the Champions League last season, losing to Arsenal again this term and their regular meetings with Barça. Perhaps they could win one game — or even one tie — against a heavyweight, but it is hard to see them winning three in a row.
Prediction
Barcelona 6-2 Real Madrid (over two legs) — Sam Marsden
It’s a clash between two former champions who are both eager to prove they still are the European juggernauts they once were. Eight-time winners OL Lyonnes have won the most titles of any team, but their most recent claim was four years ago. Although Wolfsburg made the 2023 final, their last conquest was back in 2014, marking over 12 years since they were victorious in the competition. It will be one of the toughest contests, with both sides eager to prove themselves.
Key matchup: Lineth Beerensteyn vs. Melchie Dumornay
Both with four goals, it will be a battle between the teams’ top scorers in OL Lyonnes’ Melchie Dumornay and Wolfsburg’s Lineth Beerensteyn. Dumornay has been vital to getting Lyonnes to yet another knockout round. Meanwhile, striker Beerensteyn has been a light during a difficult Wolfsburg campaign that has seen the side drop off in vital games. Though they are very different players, whichever team can get its top scorer on the ball in key areas the most will have the upper hand and will likely conquer the tie.
Key stat
OL Lyonnes have made history by reaching their 17th quarterfinal (level with Arsenal). Wolfsburg have reached 13 quarterfinals in 14 seasons.
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Wolfsburg: They won’t win the title as they are unlikely to make it past OL Lyonnes. Having lost from winning positions several times this season and failing to make use of games going in their favor — Real Madrid dropped to nine players and the German giants still could not overturn a 2-0 deficit — it will be too big of an ask for Wolfsburg to get to the semifinal, let alone reach the final or win the competition.
OL Lyonnes: They have the most pedigree and history behind them in the competition, but their desperation to reclaim some of their former glory has exposed the vulnerabilities of Jonatan Giraldez’s tenure as manager. These frailties can be heavily exploited by the right team. Both of their possible semifinal opponents — Chelsea or Arsenal — know these weaknesses and can capitalize on them.
Prediction
OL Lyonnes 4-1 Wolfsburg (over two legs) — Emily Keogh
This is Manchester United’s first foray in the Champions League, and reaching the final eight is a great return, but they are far from done. Though they have underwhelmed in the WSL, they have impressed in Europe with group stage wins over Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid and Valerenga. Their squad has been stretched, but they brought in fresh faces in January — including Bayern forward Lea Schüller — and look well set to give their German opposition a real test across both legs.
Bayern, meanwhile, will look to replicate the manner in which United shipped goals when put under real pressure in the groups against both OL Lyonnes and Wolfsburg. Bayern also impressed despite starting with a 7-1 defeat to Barcelona, collecting wins against Arsenal, Juventus and PSG, among others. Klara Bühl and Pernille Harder have been sensational for Bayern, and United’s defense will have to be at its best to stop the German side’s threats.
Key matchup: Julia Zigiotti Olme vs. Georgia Stanway
There are plenty of eye-catching matchups — United’s defense will be tasked with stopping Buhl and Harder, while Jess Park’s form will have Bayern on notice. But the duel in the middle of the pitch is fascinating, where you expect United’s Julia Zigiotti Olme to face off against Bayern’s Georgia Stanway. Stanway will see plenty of familiar faces on the opposite side of the pitch, and United will hope to have Ella Toone fit again to face her Lionesses teammate.
Zigiotti Olme, who joined United from Bayern in 2025, has been magnificent for United this year, a key, calm presence in the heart of their midfield. However, in a contest that promises to be cagey and tight, controlling the middle of the pitch will go a long way to deciding who advances.
Key stat
Klara Bühl is joint-first in the standings alongside Alessia Russo for the most combined goals and assists (nine) in the competition so far, with a tally of eight assists and one goal. She also leads the way for chances created (31).
Why each team won’t win the trophy
Manchester United: This will be a campaign too soon for United, and this is likely to be the stage at which they bow out. They have performed admirably on their first Champions League foray, and it was a special night to be there when they defeated PSG 2-1 back in November. We’ve seen the threats of Melvine Malard and Jess Park, and they are building foundations from which they can progress in the coming seasons. But this will come too soon: We saw how Wolfsburg and OL Lyonnes dismantled them, and Bayern are favorites.
Bayern Munich: They have the group stage win over Arsenal as proof of their ability to knock over WSL counterparts and will be favorites to progress through the tricky task of United. Their form in the Frauen-Bundesliga has been astonishing — winning 18 out of their 19 matches and drawing the other. That’s Barcelona-esque dominance. But on that note, their Champions League campaign started with that 7-1 dismantling at the hands of the Spanish giants. Right now, Barcelona and OL Lyonnes are leading the rest of the pack. Where there’s Bühl, Harder, Stanway and Giulia Gwinn, there is hope, but winning the whole thing is a step too far for them this year.
Prediction
Bayern Munich 3-2 Manchester United (over two legs, with Bayern nicking it in the return leg in Munich) — Tom Hamilton
