What the NBA trade deadline revealed: A compelling tanking strategy

Numbers in Cylinder 3, 5 and 2 were all low. The lower pools are typically assigned to the teams with the worst records and thus the highest odds in the annual NBA draft lottery.

Number one to go.

Justin Zanik, general manager of the Utah Jazz, leaned back on his elbows and studied his card, which contained all the numbers assigned to his team.

Will Dawkins, general manager of the Washington Wizards, stared forward with his hands folded under the table.

Hornets co-owner Rick Schnall put on his glasses and put a pencil next to the numbers he needed.

They all sat side by side, patiently – that’s what decency requires – but this is the moment that changes the direction of multi-billion dollar companies. The three teams with the highest odds were unlucky in the first three draws on that night last May.

This was the last chance to move up. Matt Duryea, vice president of the NBA, pulled the next number from the machine.

11.

“Charlotte Hornets.”

Schnall took off his glasses and leaned back, the weight falling from his shoulders. Dawkins offered a handshake. Zanik looked up and gave a flat smile. Schnall responded with a sympathetic shrug.

This, simply put, could be the difference between getting a player like Con Knoebel, who the Hornets took fourth overall with that lottery pick and who is among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, and not getting him.

It’s also the difference between instant returns and trying an emerging tanking trend in the NBA: the flip.

KNUEPPEL exists One of the greatest rookie shooting seasons in league history, shooting 42% on eight three-point attempts per game (Steph Curry shot 43% on five attempts as a rookie).

Although the Hornets have been building this roster for years — they have had four picks in the top six in the past six drafts — Knueppel’s arrival has sparked a major turnaround that has them on their longest winning streak (nine) in more than two decades.

And at the trade deadline, Charlotte made a solid deal for guard Coby White as part of what it hopes will be a real boost to the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Jazz selected Ace Bailey at No. 5, while the Wizards took Trey Johnson at No. 6. Their teams have a very high profile in their future, and a season or two from now, they could be neck and neck with Knoebel in terms of their impact. But up to this point, neither of them has allowed such a pivot.

Instead, the Wizards and Jazz are pioneering this new hybrid era: actively trading while hedging — in their cases trading stars in the middle of a sinking season — so they can make a quick turnaround next season. Face.

“How can you blame them?” One Eastern Conference general manager said. “The difference between having a top four finish last year and not being there was huge. And this year, we all know that being in the top four and missing out on (the top four) is huge.”

The Wizards traded multiple-time All-Stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis, two players expected to help them return to the playoffs for the first time in five years…next season.

Young returned from a quad injury and played five of six games for the Atlanta Hawks in December. But after moving to Washington, he has not played in six weeks and there is no timetable for his return.

When Davis suffered a hand injury last month, the Dallas Mavericks issued a press release saying he was expected to miss six weeks. After being traded last week, Dawkins told reporters in Washington that Davis would return to Dallas to rehab and that the timeline for his return could be closer to 10 weeks.

All of this, of course, puts the Wizards in a position to take the top pick this year (with the caveat that their pick will switch to the New York Knicks if they fall outside the top eight) but then quickly move into contention next season when Davis and Young are, in theory, healthy.

“You might think your fans are the hardest to answer to in a rebuild,” said one longtime league executive. “But it’s really your owner. Owners want to know when the rebuilding process is going to be over, and some of these teams obviously have a deadline.”

The Jazz, for their part, appear to be in the same position as they hope to achieve their goal — tanking to the playoffs as soon as possible.

Utah’s pick is also protected in the top eight, and the Jazz are the living embodiment of what certain spots in the lottery can mean. The team’s coaches and front offices are concerned about Bailey’s future, but he has not been invited to participate in the league’s Rising Stars game on All-Star Weekend, while former Duke roommates and top-four draft picks Cooper Flagg and Knueppel are making headlines.

The Jazz, like the Wizards, made a splash at the trade deadline as they shocked the league by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. in a draft-heavy deal with the Memphis Grizzlies.

In his first match with the team on Saturday, Jackson scored 22 points in just 25 minutes. He was then benched in the fourth quarter of an eventual three-point loss in Orlando.

His new teammate, Lauri Markkanen, recently missed seven straight games due to illness, and was regularly pulled from the lineup at the end of close games. Markkanen scored 27 points in 27 minutes against the Magic and sat next to Jackson in the fourth, a scenario that will likely be repeated down the stretch.

“Trae and AD plus a top-five pick in this draft, or Jaren and Markkanen plus a top-five pick, and you have something that could be special,” one Eastern Conference head coach said. “There are no players from this draft and you have teams that are at the bottom and maybe can get to the middle.”

Based on their actions, it appears that other teams are planning similar strategies. In this category are teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers.

I did the curling Something unprecedented this season, as he earned and used five first-round picks and routinely played with the youngest lineups in the league (the Wizards started a lineup with an average age of 20.6 at one point).

Without control over their first-round picks over the next several years, the Nets are highly incentivized to get the highest possible pick, then immediately catapult themselves into relevance. That’s a strong reason why Brooklyn will retain forward Michael Porter Jr., in the midst of a career season and in some demand, at the trade deadline.

He’s needed for a face, which the Nets hope to do aggressively by using the nearly $50 million in cap space they have this summer. The Pacers are hoping for the same thing, but they’re a few years away: a quick rebound next season when star Tyrese Haliburton returns from a ruptured Achilles tendon.

And Indiana took a step in that direction by acquiring a new franchise center in Ivica Zubac from the Los Angeles Clippers at the deadline.

After playing 15 of a possible 16 games before being traded, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle announced that Zubac would miss some of the upcoming games to care for an ankle sore that was not previously on the injury report. He also recently became a father.

There are other teams that could benefit from short-term losses as their stars are sidelined due to uncertain injury schedules, such as the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving.

“Do you know what a paradox is?” asked one Western Conference executive. “Charlotte trades White hoping to use him right away, and they find out he’s actually injured. You have Utah, Indy and Washington trading players and finding ways to move them away.”

In fact, when the Hornets had White undergo a physical last week, they discovered a previously undiagnosed calf injury that led to the deal being amended, with Charlotte removing the second-round pick from the deal with the Bulls.

Needless to say, there is some discomfort within the league, even if the flip strategy has some intellectual merit. Sources said that the issue of these long-term non-competitive maneuvers was raised at a recent NBA Competition Committee meeting.

But any rule change to address this trajectory will not be able to stop it this season.

The reservoir is likely to become more visible and perhaps more widespread.

Which leads to some philosophical questions about this general direction of the league.

“You’ve heard about Icarus and what happens when you fly too close to the sun,” said one of the team leaders. “I think some teams are at risk of flying too close to the ground.”